Take Three Steps Back

               *Pop, whoosh!  This tennis player had a lightning serve that flew about an inch above the net and he could put it anywhere he wanted.  In my junior year, I could read his body language and move just fast enough to get my racket in front of the ball but it was moving too fast for me to direct the shot.  My returns were either out of bounds or popups that he would rocket back in my face. 

Coach was watching and called me over between games with a simple piece of advice.  “The kid’s quick,” he said.  “Take three steps back to buy yourself the time you need to return that serve.”  Coach was right and I was able to really make the kid work hard for that last set.  He still won but it was a great match.  I think of Coach’s advice often and I think it applies very well to pricing and production planning in the nursery industry.    

               Growers set pricing at the end of the spring season, usually early July.  In preparation, we analyze the competition’s availabilities for pricing comparisons.  We review historical sales trends, discuss anecdotal evidence of gluts or shortages, and ultimately listen to our gut in order to set pricing for the next fall/spring.  The selling season is that tennis ball flying fast and we’re too close to react.  Nine months from July to April is not enough time to avoid a glut, take advantage of a supply shortage, or account for changes in purchasing trends. 

               We try our best to return the serve.  During a glut, we discount, liquidate, shift or dump crops.  In shortages, we hold our primo crops back like hostages to use as leverage for larger orders.  Rationing is a good strategy given the circumstances, but my point is that nine months doesn’t allow you to increase production enough to meet increased demand on a certain plant. 

As I write this in spring 2025, Rhus a. ‘Gro-low’ are short on the market in #1 and #3 sizes.  Do you have time to adjust to capitalize on the opportunity or are you stuck rationing out what few you have and kissing potential sales goodbye when you run out?  Is this a game you're willing to lose?  

What would Coach say to our industry?

“Take three steps back to buy yourself the time you need to return that serve.”   

Are you interested in the long-term solution for this dilemma?